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18.12.2008
Crisis affects the electricity sector
 The
current crisis of capitalism which has been in the centre of the
debate in Brazil and abroad, has already affected the Brazilian
electricity sector. According to data from the National Operator of
the Electricity Sector (ONS), there has been a 3.3% drop in
electricity consumption in November compared to October. In other
words, the country used less energy, equivalent to the consumption
of 2.2 million residents.
This is the result
of the reduction of industrial consumption since the commercial and
residential consumption in this period of the year is generally
higher because of the pre-Christmas season which coincides with
generally warmer weather. Only in Sao Paulo, the Industrial
Production Index elaborated by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation and by
energy distributor AES Eletropaulo, pointed to a drop of industrial
activity to the levels of December 1997 - when the Asiatic financial
crisis was peaking - with a 6% drop in industrial activity compared
to October of the same year.
The study was based
on energy consumption and therefore it appears that free consumers,
or else, big industries will start selling part of the energy they
were allocated and they will not use in the following year. In a
press release last week, the president of the Energy Research
Company (EPE), Maurício Tolmasquim, said that if consumption drops
considerably, there will be an increase in energy excess which will
be too much to be absorbed by residential consumers and at the end
they will have to pay for it.
The drop in
industrial production is already evident, however data on the
decrease in energy consumption will be more clear from March next
year. This is the evaluation of Dorival Gonçalves Junior, Professor
of the Federal University of Mato Grosso, who foresees severe
impacts on workers in various productive sectors. According to him
“there will be a chain reaction and this drop in some industrial
production sectors will have serious impacts in the life conditions
of the working class, mainly those working in car industries and
other electro-intensive sectors such as aluminium, minerals and
metallurgical companies. In addition, sectors linked to these
industries will feel the effects of the crisis.
This affirmation of
Professor Dorival confirms the recent previsions that the effects of
the crisis especially on the workers in electro-intensive industries
will be severe. The president of Vale, Roger Agneli has already
explicitly proposed drastic measures for the respective sectors such
as collective forced vacations, massive personnel dismissals and
relaxation of labour legislation.
Possibility of change
The crisis has
exposed the limits of the system and indicates the need to discuss
the current energy and development models, according to the leaders
of the Movement of Dam Affected People (MAB). Gilberto Cervinski,
from the national coordination of the movement points out that “the
current crisis opens the possibility to discuss a profound
reorganization of the model, aiming to overcome its contradictions
and focus on the sovereignty of the Brazilian people through a
genuine popular project”. According to him “in the past, there was
no real possibility to open this debate with society, since big
companies – supported by state policies and exaggerating the on the
false discourse of the possibility of a new blackout -, have been
discriminating those trying to bring these issues on the discussion
table. The pattern so far has been energy production at any cost and
irregardless of any environmental and social impacts or the
concession of natural resources to big domestic and foreign economic
groups”.
However, even with
the current drop in consumption and the expected further drop for
the next year, the plan is to build new dams for energy production.
In fact, the federal government is pushing forward the construction
of big dams on Madeira River in Rondonia and Belo Monte on Xingu
River in the State of Para. According to Professor Dorival Gonçalves,
the priority projects in the Growth Acceleration Programme (PAC) of
the government will not suffer the effects of the crisis.
“The Santo Antonio and Jirau hydroelectric plants
on Madeira River for example, will take years to be implemented,
probably six to eight from the initial studies to the point of
producing electricity. These projects are part of the expected
resumption of economic growth and capital accumulation. In other
words, the rule continues to be the same: investments in big
infrastructure projects in the energy and other related sectors.
Recently the transmission lines of the two dams were auctioned and
the construction was financially guaranteed by the National Bank of
Economic and Social Development - BNDES.”
Another proof of
the government’s eagerness to keep investing in new dam projects
despite the crisis, is the creation of the Security Fund for
Electricity Projects (FGEE) through the Provisionary Measure n° 450
on the 9th of December 2008. The objective of the fund is
not the direct financing of energy infrastructure projects, but
rather to provide the necessary guarantees every time a company
requests a loan from BNDES or private banks.
MAB proposes the revision of the current energy
model and also suggests that the government should stop promoting
the construction of new dams especially in the Amazonian region and
invest in renewable energy sources and other alternatives for the
electricity sector. One of them could and should be the renovation
of old dams which, according to Professor Célio Bermann from the
University of São Paulo, would add another 8.000 Megawatts to the
national electricity grid. Such a simple initiative could provide
more energy than the Santo Antônio and Jirau dams together and of
course without the severe social and environmental impacts these two
dams will cause.
Source:
Communication Sector - MAB |
